I had a deep conversation with a senior citizen today and one of my best mentors, a former Ambassador, former Governor, former National chairman and former Senator about the 2027 presidential elections.
His analysis was clinical and cerebral.
He described President Tinubu as the Last Don of the Class of 1999 Democrats.
But, I was touched by some of his perspective Drawings.
1. That NO Presidential elections has been won on the basis of merit or popularity since 1999 to 2023, a smart incumbent has a 90% chance of manipulating his winning margin.
2 . Apart from Goodluck Jonathan who he described as clueless and naive, every incumbent controlled the key institutions required to deliver the presidential elections including, INEC, SECURITY AGENCIES and the JUDICIARY
3. Contesting an election against a sitting President like Tinubu is like going to war against The C-In-C ( Commander-in-Chief) of the Arm Forces of Nigeria 🇳🇬.
And from day 1 ,Tinubu clearly understood what is at stake by his control of the key institutions required to deliver an election.
4. That, the coalition started too early, giving Tinubu just enough time to design his pathway to a typical Nigerian Presidential elections manipulated Victory.
If the coalition is expecting an election determined on the basis the North against Tinubu or a popularity contest, then they need to think again.
5. That the 2015 coalition that removed Jonathan Goodluck from office was 50% a Tinubu’ Textbook model.
However that coalition started as an economic movement before culminating into a political coalition of incumbent Governors and power brokers.
6. The current coalition he said, is just a political movement by some aggrieved members of Buhari- APC and Atiku -PDP members who are not in power , but eagerly waiting for the Peter Obi- obedient movement effect.
7. The impact of the current coalition will be heavily felt in the house of Assemblies, House of Representatives and Senatorial Elections.
The presidential elections, he said is mathematically and computationally too easy to manipulate in favour of the incumbent.
The 2023 Elections, he said is against THE LAST DON and Tinubu has done a rehearsal of this current script over and over again.
